Run your own simulations of global warming with the attached spreadsheets!
Is prevention of global warming possible? Or is only mitigation of global warming possible? How fast do changes in the carbon dioxide emissions affect the average temperature increase? What are the effects of some proposed global warming solutions?
If you like to get a feeling for the relation between the average temperature increase due to climate change and the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, run your own simulations with the attached „global warming calculator". Either OpenOffice (for the OO-version) or M$ Excel (for the Excel-version) is required.
Alternatively, we have calculated some results based on different scenarios of mitigated CO2 emissions .
Description of the global warming calculator model
Input for all simulations
- World-wide average carbon footprint (yearly CO2 emissions by capita)
- Increase of decrease in percent per year of the above mentioned average carbon footprint during phase 1 *)
- Starting year for phase 2 *)
- Increase of decrease in percent per year of the above mentioned average carbon footprint during phase 2 *)
- Increase or decrease of the world population after the year 2050 (the growth of world population until 2050 has been taken from the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and cannot be changed within the model)
*) The model is split into two phases to allow for the simulation of different starting years when a reduction of the average carbon footprint is beginning. Phase 1 is always beginning in year 2007 and is usually „business as usual" (BAU) without any serious actions to reduce global warming. Phase 2 is normally when serious actions lead to a change in the average carbon footprint.
Output of the global warming calculator
As a result of the above mentioned input, you get the effects on the average temperature increase and on the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere for the years 2000 until 2150. In addition, the resulting global CO2 emissions and the world-wide population are shown in graphs.
Remarks and suggestions
- Calculate your personal carbon footprint and use it for a simulation. You will see what would happen if everyone was like you.
- Try to find solutions where the average temperature increase stays below 2° C. Temperature increase higher than 2° C are expected to have very devastating influences on Earth and as a consequence on human beings. Therefore it has been widely agreed that global warming must not exceed 2° C.
- Keep an eye on changes to the world population. It will have a major effect on the global warming!
- Credits, licensing information and further comments can be found inside the attached spreadsheets.