Growing world population

1. Anonymous 2008-02-04 at 05:20

   population of China in 2050
   I am from China. To my understand, China start one-child policy for the family since 1976. It will bring population downsize after 2020-2030 by my estimation.

   I do not know the original source for your data, and would like to share your view.

   Karf
   Ph.D, Operations Specialist
   Operations development group
   ABB China Ltd.
1. juerg 2008-02-26 at 18:03

   One-Child policy in China

   Dear Karf,

   The source of the data above is the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/). Data last updated 08-24-2006.

   So the one-child policy in China is certainly taken into account for the above figures. This is the reason why the population of China is estimated to be almost the same in 2007 and 2050.

   Juerg
2. Anonymous 2009-07-09 at 00:41

   Population reduction
   You come so close in this excellent paper — but you stop short of recommending reduction of population! Why???
   No one says it would be easy, and I have no particular strategy for bringing it about.
   But I think your entire exposition would be made more meaningful if you could estimate global temperatures, carbon dioxide atmospheric levels, global carbon dioxide emissions, etc., projecting them decade by decade — but at different levels of world population. Take it back a half billion people at a time, all the way down to two billion people (that’s my personal estimate of where world population should be if we’re to have a “sustainable” civilization).
   I have made the same criticism of the IPCC project. They have briefly alluded to the importance of population — but have stopped short of making any recommendations for addressing it. I felt that their SRES computer models could have been tweaked so as to show outcomes varying with different specific levels of world population.
   That’s not to say that I don’t agree with all the other measures you recommend. I do. But I’m really skeptical that we’ll ever be successful if we don’t simultaneously bring down world population.

   George F. Gitlitz, M.D.
   Sarasota, FL
   gandsgitlitz@cs.com
1. juerg 2009-07-09 at 09:52

   World population and global warming

   Dear George,

   I agree with what you are saying. This was the reason why we took all the effort to provide a "global warming simulation tool" as a spreadsheet model. For this model, there are 3 parameters you can play with:

   • When to start with the reduction of greenhouse gases
   • Increase or decrease in percent per year of the world-wide average carbon footprint (CO2 emissions per capita)
   • Size of world population (increase or decrease in percent per year)

   At this link, you can download the global warming simulation model as Excel or OpenOffice spreadsheet.

   At this link, you can find some commented results of the global warming simulation model. However the reduction of the world population as you suggested was not taken into account. But if you download the model, you can easily do this yourself.

   Best regards

   Juerg
2. Anonymous 2009-10-28 at 00:39

   Population and Global Warming
   I recently queried a person involved with the IPCC reports with regard to world population vis-a-vis global warming. He sent me a glib answer that human respiration has nothing to do with increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (because it is a closed system– the food eaten was a product of photosynthesis, so the carbon released by human respiration has sort of been paid forward by the plants that died to create the food the human consumed), and basically said case closed! I am no scientist, but that makes no sense to me. Since 1750 the population has increased at a huge rate, and concidentally, so has carbon emissions– almost an identical curve. I believe that human over population has lead to any number of effects. If the globe is warming due to carbon emissions, it seems as or more likely that human population/respiration and yes, burning of fossil fuels taken together are the problem. Fewer people, fewer carbon emissions. I find very few people willing to allow for the continued population increase as the root source for any “global warming” that is not caused by natural cycles, sun spots, etc. Can you comment?

   Jeff
   jeff@mcvickers.net
1. juerg 2009-11-30 at 20:47

   World population increase and climate change

   Jeff,

   The increasing world population is indeed a major problem as stated in the main article above. However it is not really respiration of these people which is causing problems, it is rather the need of these people for food, water, space, energy, etc. The earth cannot sustain an ever increasing number of people with ever increasing demands per capita. The ressources of the earth are limited and so is the number of people it can sustain.

   I think the person you queried misunderstood your question. Probably he or she wanted only point out that global warming has very little to do with respiration of people.

   Juerg
2. Anonymous 2010-08-11 at 11:29

   What impacts world population increase
   As you fly in a jet place from say one continent to another, take a look through the window and try to comprehend and contemplate the vast uninhabited space of our Earth, even in the most populated countries. It is massive. It simply seems infinite. So, let’s not forget about our incapacities, greed, wars, corruption, destruction and love-of-dominating of others and instead, we put the blame of our mistakes on Earth and its God-given size.

   Allah says (Allah? God? What does He have to do with this you may say now): Corruption is appeared in land and sea as a result of what people “accomplished”. Take a look at our seas. Take a look at our destroyed lands and countries. The destruction and devastation we are currently living are actually the direct impact of the decisions and will of a few, very few, who control the wealth of the world, yet they seem the most hungriest for more. The rest of the population simply seem to them to be overweight that they are better off without.

   They are stupid! They don’t know how to differentiate between fat and life-sustaining matter, us.

   Mohsen Madi
3. Anonymous 2010-12-24 at 22:15

   What impacts world population increase
   The above graphs indicate a declining European population, maybe there is a link between a populations size and the availability and standard of their populations education?

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